Russia is in the category of a local player; it no longer has the overall superpower or imperial advantage it had but, like Turkey, it wields enough military force to make a nuisance. The civil war in Libya may worsen if Turkey and the UAE on one side, and Russia on the other, escalate their involvement.
Syria, still engulfed in a decade-long civil war, has been carved up into Turkish, Russian, Syrian government and Iranian zones. Iraq appears to have slipped even more into the Iranian orbit. The slow US exit from Iraq and Afghanistan — the latter to the evident satisfaction of the undefeated Taliban — will further encourage struggles for a share of power. The decline of US interest in the region is driven by the decreasing importance of oil and gas.
Public fatigue with the appalling loss of life, money and prestige the US has endured over the last 20 years has soured any appetite for further overseas wars. Arms deals and attractive opportunities for investment are declining, highlighted by the anxiety the Saudis are showing in trying to drum up disinterested foreign direct investment. The only motivators for continued US involvement are the security of Israel and the possibility that Iran, unchecked, may emerge as the local superpower.
The campaign of maximum pressure to drive oil exports to zero, foment unrest and impose hardship was promoted as a way to push the Iranians back to the negotiating table and make more concessions in order to resuscitate the nuclear deal.
The reality was that Trump sought the destruction of the regime. Despite enormous hardship, Iran did not buckle. It has a structural advantage: an educated and innovative population with well-balanced demographics, a diversified economy, fertile and productive agriculture, mineral resources and, of course, abundant hydrocarbons.
It is a sleeping giant of an economy. Moreover, in almost every other sphere, from historical legacy, self-sufficient industry, military prowess, agriculture, architecture, food, to art, poetry and literature, Iran has been the dominant cultural influence in the region since the Seljuk empire — the same empire that brought the Ottomans, a Seljuk offshoot, to Turkey.
It had a short-term objective of regime change which, if reached, would actually accelerate the loss of US interest in the region and further underline the retreat of the most recent would-be successor to the Ottomans. Another vacuum is developing and, unchecked by binding treaties, Iran could regain its position as the major power in the region. Before Iran attempts to become the Ottoman successor, it is in the interest of all the other countries in the region to reach a general settlement.
Instead of examining short-term tactics based only on hatred or fear of the current Iranian regime, there is a need for a strategic view. Since the collapse of the Ottomans, the Middle East has seen continuous fighting, on and off, among international powers and regional players for the remnants of empire. The British and the French have come and gone, the US and Russia have come and are retreating — although they do intervene on a tactical basis here and there, usually leaving a worse situation than the one they found.
The Americans are clearly in the final stages of disengagement, driven, in part, by that declining need to keep the region and its oil in the Western camp. The power vacuum is growing, and if the sanctions are lifted, Iran will be back in business. The unity of Iraq and Syria is in question, Lebanon is a failed state and the future of the Saudi regime is not secure given the failure of the Vision initiative and the outlook for oil in a decarbonizing world economy. Turkey is eyeing the opportunities, as is Russia.
Both have historical claims to Ottoman lands. But there is very little likelihood that any big power might be willing or able to assert sovereign rule over the Middle East. Even thinking about this is to court accusations of neo-colonialism. The solution lies in a different direction, not in more confrontation and threats of military conquest.
A better vision is for an economic, political and security dialogue among all the parties in the region must be conceived. All parties are suffering in one way or another from the current disorder, whether it is the Iranians, Syrians, Iraqis, Yemenis or Saudis. The current situation is unsustainable, and any idea that any sort of victory is possible is an illusion. On the other hand, all the countries around the Gulf, including Iran, have much to gain from a cessation of hostilities, economic cooperation and the settlement of disputes through negotiation.
The model of what the Europeans were able to achieve after the Second World War is a good one, and this time no Marshall Plan will be needed as the wealth and resources of the regional players are already enormous. Every country has something to gain. But there will be losers.
They will be the autocratic dictators who currently stand in the way of such a general settlement. A human rights and a democratic track will be essential parts of any such dialogue in order to ensure sustainability and continuity. This will require the Iranian regime and other authoritarian rulers to surrender power — perhaps not all of it right away — but over time, enough to give their citizens confidence in their own personal security and investment in the governance of their own countries and their neighbors.
A good start would be a regional security dialogue and some confidence-building measures. This is where the Biden administration must begin its work. For more than 10 years, Fair Observer has been free, fair and independent.
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Finance Eurozone International Trade. Entrepreneurship Startups Technology. Entertainment Music Film Books Travel. Climate change Smart cities Green Economy. By Ian McCredie. Consent to Be Ruled The intervening years were not of uninterrupted peace and stability, but the Ottomans did provide an overarching continuity of rule over the region. I agree to receive emails and other content from Fair Observer. The independent Georgian Church is abolished and religious authority assumed by Russian Orthodox bishops.
The repressive nature of Russian imperial rule, however, is eventually resented. After , when the Russians implement more enlightened policies, emancipation movements begin to develop. Armenian, Georgian, and Azerbaijani intellectuals espouse nationalism and socialism. One of the most notable movements in the region occurs in Dagestan. Led by Imam Shamil r. By the turn of the twentieth century, revolutionary oppositions gain support in Tbilisi and Baku.
Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia are administered as federations until , when they are transformed into republics of the Soviet Union. Carpets , textiles, jewelry, and metalwork best represent the arts of the region during this period. During the early nineteenth century, when most of the Caucasus is still under Persian rule, a strong Persian element is seen in painting and architecture.
Palaces in Armenia and Georgia follow the Qajar model and are adorned with lifesize portraits in oil in the Qajar style. After the second Russo-Persian War, in the beginning of the second quarter of the century, Armenian liberation movements emerge which have a significant impact on the development of art and literature.
Known as a gifted painter of seascapes, Aivazovsky gains international fame at the age of twenty-five. Fine carpets continue to be woven throughout the Caucasus; each region weaves a distinctive pattern. Rug weaving is a common occupation of Armenian village women. They are also used in burial rituals. However, rug aesthetics and production undergo considerable change in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries.
In , he helped the Habsburgs suppress the uprising in Hungary and urged Prussia not to adopt a liberal constitution. While Nicholas was attempting to maintain the status quo in Europe, he followed a somewhat more aggressive policy toward the neighboring empires to the south, namely the Ottoman Empire and Persia. Nicholas was widely believed to be following the traditional Russian policy of resolving the so-called Eastern Question by seeking to partition the Ottoman Empire and establish a protectorate over the Orthodox population of the Balkans, still largely under Ottoman control in the s.
In fact, in line with his commitment to upholding the status quo in Europe, he feared any attempt to devour the decaying Ottoman Empire would both upset its ally Austria, which also had interests in the Balkans, and bring about an Anglo-French coalition in defense of the Ottomans. Further, during the war of , the Russians had defeated the Ottomans in every battle fought in the field and advanced deep into the Balkans, but the discovered that they lacked the necessary logistical strength to take Constantinople.
This was seen as a more achievable goal than conquering the entire Ottoman Empire. Nicholas actually wanted to preserve the Ottoman Empire as a stable but weak state that would be unable to stand up to Russia, as he viewed the country first and foremost as a European power and regarded Europe as more important than the Middle East.
By now, Russia had conquered all Caucasian territories of Iran in both the North and South Caucasus, comprising modern-day Georgia, Dagestan, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, through the course of the 19th century. Thus, Russia found itself in a war with the whole of Europe. Austria offered the Ottomans diplomatic support and Prussia remained neutral, thus leaving Russia without any allies on the continent.
The European allies landed in Crimea and laid siege to the well-fortified Russian base at Sebastopol. The Russians lost battles at Alma in September followed by lost battles at Balaklava and Inkerman.
On January 15, , the new tsar took Russia out of the war on very unfavorable terms which included the loss of a naval fleet on the Black Sea. Russia now faced the choice of initiating major reforms or losing its status as a major European power. Privacy Policy.
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